July 2023 Monthly Market Checkin

October 2, 2023

I hope you are enjoying this beautiful Summer and are taking advantage of the many opportunities that we have here.  Here is a synopsis of our current market based on the most recent statistics.  If you have any questions, please give me a call to discuss details. 

Current Active Listings (All Types)2324Up 5.2% from last month & up 21% from this time last year
Current Pending Listings1199Up 1.4% from last month & down 21% from this time last year
Sold Listings last Month890Up 15% from last month & down 22% from this time last year
New Listings last Month1253Up .64% from last month & down 16% from this time last year
Months of Inventory3.16Up 7.5% from last month & up 55% from this time last year
Absorption Rate38%*Up 8% from last month & down 43% from this time last year
*Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month
Average Sales Price in All Categories$449,000Up .45% from last month & down 4.6% from this time last year
Average Residential Sales Price$486,000**Up 1% from last month & up 1.7% from this time last year
**Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics
Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates6.81%***Up 1.5% from last month & up 21% from this time last year
***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage

Real Estate is Local.  Although transactions that include land, manufactured homes in parks, commercial, etc have continued to struggle, we continue to see Residential prices be resilient in our Mid Valley.  We are also seeing many homes that are desirable, experiencing bidding wars.  It is reported that the cash that is available to the middle class has been a driving force to hedge against the higher interest rates.  Cash buyers are seeing opportunities with less competition, and they are also doing a good job in helping keep our inventory down.  Cash sales contribute to 27% of our sales here in the Mid Valley.  This does not take into account the large amounts of down payments that are being established with conventional financing purchases to get the buyer over the finish line.  That is significant.  Conventional financing contributes to 49% of our transactions, FHA is 16%, VA is 7% and USDA and contracts contribute to 2%  These stats are all Year to Date. 

Some people have expected a deeper housing crisis, but I can tell you that we have only seen a handful of Notice of Defaults go out to each of the 4 local counties in our area.  Some people seem to be struggling to make their payments, but this is very insignificant at this time.  A Notice of Default is given by the bank to mortgagors who are 3 months behind in their payments.  This can trigger the foreclosure proceedings as the next step would be a Notice of Foreclosure if the borrower doesn’t get caught up or work out a modified payment arrangement.  This is public record, so we are able to keep track of them.

Governor Kotek recently signed into law a new regulation cap on rental increases.  To replace the previous law of SB 608SB 611 narrows the ability of landlords to increase rents up to 10% or 7% plus the 12 month average of the CPI, whichever is lower; capping it out at 10% from the previous year.  With inflation at high levels the 2019 law apparently didn’t take into account the high costs of living and they now want to make sure those costs are not passed along to tenants.  This new law also requires notices of rent increases to be given at least 90 days before taking effect. 

Things are starting to look a little better concerning the recent CPI report suggests with Headline Inflation increasing at just .18% in June and also decreased to a rate of 3% from 4% from this time last year (YOY).  The Core Index recorded at 4.8% which is down from 5.3% this time last year.  Shelter costs make up 43% of the core index and have been at focus for many months.  They are up .4% from last month, but down significantly from this time last year.  This segment is causing that index to remain stubborn.  Rents are still up at .5% from last month and lodging away from home is down 2% from last month.  Used car sales and airline fares have also finally come down to also help with this report.  

The PPI report also suggests that inflation is coming down considerably as the new numbers surprised the experts.  They came in at .1% of a rise (MOM) and also just .1% higher than this time last year (YOY).  So inflation continues to lose steam at an increased level as we have been reporting.  The brakes are taking more effect.

The FED’s meeting on July 25th-26th should expect them to raise rates once again, but they should be seeing the writing on the wall, and make only a minor adjustment.  Hopefully this is the last one.  Although they have communicated that their target Core Inflation goal is 2%, it will take a lot of work and possible destruction to get it down to that level anytime soon.  All of the economists that we are listening to are saying that the FED needs to stop making adjustments and let the lagging effects come to fruition as the indicators are signaling.  Doing much more could cause a deeper and lasting damaged economy, which many people may have a hard time recovering from.

At the core, if you live in this country, you have won the lottery of life.  There are so many issues throughout the world and we continue to be very fortunate.  There are opportunities everywhere.  Real Estate continues to be a strong segment in this economy so if you are wanting to increase your portfolio, give us a call.

Paramount Oregon Paramount Oregon
© 2024 Brian & Nina White
1008 12th St. SE Salem
Principal Brokers Licensed in the State of Oregon